Tired of the politicians and the talking heads
on TV trying to interpret polls for you and tell you who's going to win the
presidential election on Tuesday?
There are other ways to predict the winner, many of them fun, all of them that you can determine on your own just by keeping an eye out yourself.
Frank Mackaman, head of Pekin's Dirksen Congressional Center, recently gave a presentation at Bradley University in which he described several.
They include Allan Lichtman's 13-point survey of political, economic, social, foreign affairs and policy conditions in the country. In essence, it posits that the more successful a president is and the more stable social and economic conditions are at home, the more likely an incumbent is to be re-elected. If six or more of the 13 conditions aren't met, the president is defeated. The model has proven correct in every election since 1860.
But that's very detailed and, dare I say,We mainly supply professional craftspeople with wholesale agate beads from china, wonky. There are some more entertaining methods to help predict the winner.
Perhaps most popular is the Washington Redskins model.Western Canadian distributor of ceramic and ceramic tile,
Mackaman explains: "When the team loses or ties in its final game before Election Day, the party in the White House is ousted. This method correctly predicted every outcome of every race from 1936 to 2000. It missed in 2004, but predicted correctly in 2008."
The likelihood of game results and election results matching up that frequently, he says, are one in 263.5 million - more than 2,600 times the chance of being killed by a lightning strike.
Meanwhile, CNN Money points out that whichever candidate ends up with more Halloween masks of himself sold ends up the victor. This has been true in every election since 1980.
Or you could listen to your kids. Scholastic News has correctly called the winner of every election since 1964 in its quadrennial poll of the nation's schoolchildren. Those results are out already, and kids re-elected the president by a 6-point margin. (Regardless of the actual winner, I think it's safe to predict that the popular vote will be closer than that.)
Or look at Mason County. Former Journal Star reporter Mike Smothers, now working for our sister paper in Pekin, wrote last week that the rural county has correctly picked the winner in the last four presidential elections.High quality mold making Videos teaches anyone how to make molds.
We'll also see soon how accurate Peoria Rivermen fans are at picking the president. Their Saturday giveaway of presidential candidate bobblehead dolls (fans could select either an Obama doll or Romney doll) was won by those picking up Obama bobbleheads.Directory ofchina glass mosaic Tile Manufacturers, It's a wholly unscientific measure, of course. But,The howo truck is offered by Shiyan Great Man Automotive Industry, then, so are all of the other options above except for Lichtman's.
By the time this is published, the presidential campaign season will be (mercifully) just about over. A few more days will bring an end to the incessant calls, mailings, and media ads from supplicant politicians, and then we can turn our attention to the more exciting (or not) pastime of shopping for the holidays!
But just in case you're a political junkie still looking to acquire something other than the usual banners, pins, t-shirts, and hats, here are a few suggestions for items that may hold or increase in value because they're cross-collectible. Not a collector yourself? They make great birthday or holiday gifts for the politicos in your life. Who knows, these items may make the hard-core laugh instead of yelling at the TV!
There are other ways to predict the winner, many of them fun, all of them that you can determine on your own just by keeping an eye out yourself.
Frank Mackaman, head of Pekin's Dirksen Congressional Center, recently gave a presentation at Bradley University in which he described several.
They include Allan Lichtman's 13-point survey of political, economic, social, foreign affairs and policy conditions in the country. In essence, it posits that the more successful a president is and the more stable social and economic conditions are at home, the more likely an incumbent is to be re-elected. If six or more of the 13 conditions aren't met, the president is defeated. The model has proven correct in every election since 1860.
But that's very detailed and, dare I say,We mainly supply professional craftspeople with wholesale agate beads from china, wonky. There are some more entertaining methods to help predict the winner.
Perhaps most popular is the Washington Redskins model.Western Canadian distributor of ceramic and ceramic tile,
Mackaman explains: "When the team loses or ties in its final game before Election Day, the party in the White House is ousted. This method correctly predicted every outcome of every race from 1936 to 2000. It missed in 2004, but predicted correctly in 2008."
The likelihood of game results and election results matching up that frequently, he says, are one in 263.5 million - more than 2,600 times the chance of being killed by a lightning strike.
Meanwhile, CNN Money points out that whichever candidate ends up with more Halloween masks of himself sold ends up the victor. This has been true in every election since 1980.
Or you could listen to your kids. Scholastic News has correctly called the winner of every election since 1964 in its quadrennial poll of the nation's schoolchildren. Those results are out already, and kids re-elected the president by a 6-point margin. (Regardless of the actual winner, I think it's safe to predict that the popular vote will be closer than that.)
Or look at Mason County. Former Journal Star reporter Mike Smothers, now working for our sister paper in Pekin, wrote last week that the rural county has correctly picked the winner in the last four presidential elections.High quality mold making Videos teaches anyone how to make molds.
We'll also see soon how accurate Peoria Rivermen fans are at picking the president. Their Saturday giveaway of presidential candidate bobblehead dolls (fans could select either an Obama doll or Romney doll) was won by those picking up Obama bobbleheads.Directory ofchina glass mosaic Tile Manufacturers, It's a wholly unscientific measure, of course. But,The howo truck is offered by Shiyan Great Man Automotive Industry, then, so are all of the other options above except for Lichtman's.
By the time this is published, the presidential campaign season will be (mercifully) just about over. A few more days will bring an end to the incessant calls, mailings, and media ads from supplicant politicians, and then we can turn our attention to the more exciting (or not) pastime of shopping for the holidays!
But just in case you're a political junkie still looking to acquire something other than the usual banners, pins, t-shirts, and hats, here are a few suggestions for items that may hold or increase in value because they're cross-collectible. Not a collector yourself? They make great birthday or holiday gifts for the politicos in your life. Who knows, these items may make the hard-core laugh instead of yelling at the TV!
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