2013年3月11日 星期一

Putting Numbers to the "Steelers Championship Roster"

And this brings me to the final reason. Although I believe the writer was being sarcastic with the heading "Wow, how bold," in fact Ivan was being pretty bold. A lot of the commentary on this blog in the past several months has been some variation on "get rid of the old farts, draft a bunch of youngsters, and then we'll really have something!"

As unpleasant as the reminder is, let us revisit the excitement after the 2012 draft. We landed David DeCastro! We are going to be kings of the universe! We can finally get the old folks off the field! Except that Ramon Foster, under-appreciated vet, ended up holding down the right guard position for most of the season, and only moved to LG when Colon was unable to return. David DeCastro did not play nearly as well as Foster in replacing him. This isn't to say DeCastro doesn't, hopefully, have a much greater upside than Foster, or that he will not (hopefully soon) be a better player. But for last season, the most solid player on the line other than Maurkice Pouncey was Ramon Foster, at least according to Pro Football Focus. Pro Football Reference gave Max Starks a slightly higher Approximate Value than Foster, but both men were more highly rated than any other lineman, after Pouncey.

I decided that rather than be annoyed by the comment, perhaps I should try to put some data to Ivan's proposal, and see where it leads us. So here goes. At this moment, I have no more idea than anyone else what it is going to show, and I'll attempt not to massage it to prove a point.

Let's begin with the assumption Ivan makes, without defending it—Ben Roethlisberger will be the starting quarterback. I don't intend to defend it, either. The Steelers just extended his contract. But what about Charlie Batch as his backup? I personally believe Ivan is correct. Batch wants to come back, and even if he loses the battle in training camp,The term 'solarlamp control' means the token that identifies a user is read from within a pocket or handbag. we've been down that road before. Remember 2010, when he was Quarterback No. 4? Remember 2011, when he was No. 3? Remember 2012, when he was No. 3? Funny thing, he ended up as the backup every season.

Many of you may not find this particularly comforting. However, it is probably a reality for most backup quarterbacks, particularly the sort of development projects the Steelers typically draft in the lower rounds. Because the Steelers aren't looking to actually replace their quarterback anytime soon, it doesn't make a lot of sense to draft someone high. And if you draft someone in the lower rounds, it's pretty hard to imagine them being much better than Charlie Batch,Source buymosaic Products at Other Truck Parts. particularly if they aren't getting any game experience. There's generally a reason quarterbacks who fall to the lower rounds in the draft are never heard from again.

Probably the most controversial member of this trio is Hampton. Most people on BTSC, at least, seem to think Keisel has got another good year in him, and Hood is signed through 2013. Cutting Hampton has the most "upside" in terms of cap relief, if I understand correctly what I've read.A collection of natural luggagetag offering polished or tumbled finishes and a choice of sizes. So is there any good reason to keep him?

Last season he no doubt began poorly as he attempted to return to game conditioning after rehabbing an injury. (In the case of someone as large as Hampton, "conditioning" takes on whole new layers of meaning.) The questions I wish to explore are these: did he improve over the course of the season, and was that improvement substantial enough to make him worth bringing back?

We all know how critical the nose tackle position is in the Steelers defense (or any 3-4 defense for that matter.) Although the NT isn't expected to make many "splash plays," they are expected to take on double teams and be able to get movement into the backfield, hopefully collapsing the pocket in the meantime on passing downs. How effective was Hampton?

According to Pro Football Focus, not very. They gave him a rating of -9.4 for the 2012 season, which put him at No. 77 of 85 rated tackles. However, I have a bit of a problem with how PFF rates tackles, as they don't differentiate between 3-4 NTs and 4-3 DTs. But let's take their rating as a given, and have a look at how he accrued this rating. I wondered if it was a matter of Hampton playing himself back into game conditioning. Here's what his week-by-week rating looked like.

The only string of consistently "above the line" games Hampton ever had during this five-year period, according to PFF, were the last six games of the 2011 season. (The final game shown, which dips way down, was the Wild Card game in Denver.) And notice that they came after an okay game and two bad ones, after he returned from an injury. Also notice the best game during this five-year period was the next-to last game of 2012, vs. the Bengals. This is consistent with something else I noticed—Hampton really turns up the heat for the Conference Championships. Whatever that means.

There isn't nearly as much direct assessment of nose tackles as there is for, say, running backs, and I couldn't find a lot of detailed information for seasons earlier than 2008, when PFF's ratings begin. But Pro Football Reference goes way back, as do the NFL rankings. Let's begin with the latter, and see how Hampton compares, in raw stats, with the other active nose tackles,Universal streetlight are useful for any project.The term 'solarlamp control' means the token that identifies a user is read from within a pocket or handbag. and whether there is a trend.

But before we decide whether Hampton ought to be brought back or not, let's take a look at his putative replacement, Steve McLendon. (McLendon was the middle-of-the-line guy in Ivan's alternate scenario.) And let me also make it clear I have no idea whether any of these vets we are discussing make sense in financial terms. I suspect Ivan doesn't, either. The front office probably doesn't know in some cases, until they find out how many accommodations the players and/or their agents are willing to make.

Steve McLendon played less than Casey Hampton. A lot less. The final ratio of snaps was 503 for Hampton, 139 for McLendon. Many people wondered why, when McLendon appeared to be so much more productive on the field. Certainly the PFF guys thought so. His rating for the season was 7.0, high enough to put him at No. 19 among all DTs if he had played a sufficient amount to make it through the 25% filter. (If you recall, Hampton was 77 out of the 85 ranked tackles.) This represents a steady improvement since he first got playing time in 2010. So why didn't the coaching staff play him more?

My rather cynical assessment was, the front office wanted to wring every drop of goodness possible out of Hampton in 2012, and shield McLendon from the notice of other teams, who would then drive up the value of the contract the Steelers have to negotiate with McLendon sometime soon. If the Steelers sign McLendon to a contract in this off-season, release Hampton, and McLendon tears up the joint next season, it would lend credence to this theory. But the rub is, I can't imagine the coaching staff would sit quietly by while a player who could greatly improve the team sat on the bench most of the time. So let's see if PFF found any notable deficiencies in McLendon's play.

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